Georgia vs. TCU prediction, pick, line, spread, odds for 2023 college football national championship game
As we near ever so close to the kickoff to the 2022-2023 national championship here in Los Angeles, California, we bring you our final thoughts on why this
Toughness and physicality. Those are the two words I most associate with TCU and Georgia after the last ten days of evaluation. They are both predicated on punching you first, asking questions later.
The Horned Frogs enter this football game bolstering one of the more unique defensive units in the sport. It's a 3-3-5 odd stack that is predicated on confusion and physicality that has given teams problems all season.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, a known defensive savant himself, said he became enamored with this specific version of the 3-3-5 back in 2020.
"Coach Gillespie does a hell of a job. It amazes me the job he does consistently even from Tulsa, because, like I've talked about, we played Cincinnati a couple years ago, and Tulsa by far and away did the best job against Cincinnati. And we became enamored in that when he was doing it then."
So, it's certainly not anything new to Smart, though it will be fresh for the players themselves. There are a tremendous amount of eyes on the quarterback at all times, and a level of unpredictability about what you'll be receiving on any given down.
Therefore as an offensive coordinator, you have to be willing to be patient. You have to be willing to "eat your vegetables" as an offense. For Big 12 offenses this season, it was virtually impossible, they refused to check the ball down, run the football when the box indicates you should, and be patient on the way to a scoring drive.
Instead, they got anxious, became impatient, and forced the football. It's why TCU finished second in the Big 12 in turnovers forced (22), with (16) of those being interceptions. You become impatient, they turn you over. Period.
That brings us to Todd Monken, Georgia's offensive coordinator who is perhaps the most patient, albeit explosive, coordinator in the sport. This is a Georgia offense that has and can win in a multitude of ways, though perhaps their favorite recipe for success is to "take the air out of the ball." This is a football team that over the years has been almost stubborn about their willingness to be methodical in their offensive approach.
For years, people like myself have asked Georgia to play faster. Throw deeper and more often, be explosive, all of those cliches. Ironically enough, Saturday's recipe for success is Death March football. It's 12 plays, 75 yards, and seven points. Mostly because of the way TCU plays on offense...
Defensively for Georgia, I expect to see an offensive line unit for TCU that can stand in and take the punches from the heavyweights. What I don't expect them to be able to handle is the athleticism that comes with this Georgia football team. Michigan looked shell-shocked by the speed of the Horned Frogs. Well, if you've watched college football over the last decade, you'd know SEC football teams don't get outrun. Ever. Speed is not a concern, or at least historically they haven't been.
The fear is the explosivity. They lead the nation in plays of 50 yards or more, 3rd in the nation in plays of 40 yards or more. This team takes and makes their shots. TCU makes other teams dedicate additional bodies to the box to stop the run, then hits their shots to players like receiver Quinton Johnson, who's averaging 18.1 yards per reception on the season. Run, run, run, take a deep shot. Run, run, run, take a deep shot.
Making a pick for the natty isn’t simple. It’s one of the biggest markets of the year — so the odds are typically far too efficient for my liking.
And I love a good under, but find absolutely no pregame value here. TCU and Georgia can score in bunches and six of the last title games — since we started the CFP — have featured at least 60 points in the final showdown.
Here at the Action Network, we ordinarily turn to data over pure gut. But the greatest piece of information I have from watching TCU is that they sure don’t play like Cinderella.
How to watch Georgia vs. TCU live
Game: College Football Playoff National Championship
Date: Monday, Jan. 9 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium -- Inglewood, Calif.
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
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